Brent Crude oil

Radek napsal:

Dneska mám rozvernou náladů.

Dnes na bloombergu:
Ceny ropy jsou na svých maximech proč?
Nikdy v historii jsem nezaznamenal tolik pozornosti v mediich o komodity. Nikdy více jsem neslyšel zabývat se politiky tímto tématem jako dnes.

Tohle je argument pro oslabení který nelze popřít

Ahoj, to jsem rád, že jsi veselý, zvláště když to padá .

S tím s tebou plně souhlasím, jenom nevím, kolik té pozornosti bude za 14 dní - jestli je jí tedy už dost.

ja zase tak rozvernou naladu nemam. Prozil jsem si hezke chvile v shortu, kdyz jsem ho koupil za 129 a jake bylo me prekvapeni dalsi den, kdyz to bylo 135. Neveril jsem vlastnim ocim. Zrovna pred chvili jsem ten short uzavrel i kdyz mozna delam chybu. Ale jestli to vyleze zase nahoru, tak ho znovu otevru.

článek jež jsem našel u Honzajse

Where Will Oil Prices Go?

So, let's look at the fundamentals for oil. While a large part of this week's rise in oil was short covering (you can tell that from open positions), the supply of oil was down 7% from last year, even with demand beginning to fall. But there is an interesting footnote to that statistic, which we will visit later. Look at the chart below from http://www.economy.com:



Notice that supplies turned down sharply this last month, while the momentum of falling supply had been dropping since January. That is to say, the change in crude oil stocks was a negative 10% in January and was a little over -4% a month ago, falling to -7% today. But this is in the face of demand slowing. Today we learned that gasoline usage was down 4.2%, as prices are finally changing American driving behavior.

Jakab Spencer noted in his always interesting Dow Jones column that there is a disconnect between the New York Stock Exchange and the New York Mercantile Exchange, just one mile apart. The NYSE is pricing in $75 oil in oil stocks, while the futures market is surging over $135, and there are calls for near-term $150-a-barrel oil. The stock market is telling us that oil, at least in futures terms, is in a bubble.

And frankly, if you listened to their testimony, and more importantly pay attention to their actions, oil company executives simply do not believe that the price of oil is going to be $135 a barrel for the next few years. If they did, they would be punching more holes in the ground in places where it might be expensive to get the oil to market - but at $135 a barrel it would be profitable.

And then there is an odd circumstance in the oil picture that I think may suggest that we could see a break, and perhaps a violent one, in the near term for the price of oil.

Where Are All the Tankers?

For a few weeks now, observers have noticed that Iran is leasing tankers and storing oil in them. At about $140,000 a week or so, that is expensive storage. At first, conspiracy theorists were wondering if they were preparing for some kind of war or attack. But more conventionally, it may be they are having problems selling their oil. Their oil is not very high-quality, and there are only a few places that can take it and refine it. India, China, and the US are among the countries with refineries that can take Iranian oil. (And yes, George Friedman of Stratfor tells me some of it does end up in the US from time to time.)

India's refiners are telling Iran they no longer want their oil, preferring the higher-quality oil that is readily available in the area. So Iran has to decide whether to send it to China or "repackage" it so that it can end up in the US, while they try to get refiners in India to change their minds. Thus, they are leasing tankers to store the oil they are pumping.

I called George about six this evening and asked him about the Iranian situation, as that is a lot of oil that could come on the market at some point, as well as a possible reason that oil supplies are down. George has analysts on top of this situation.

He told me, "John, it's more interesting than that. It is not just Iran. Today we started checking on how many tankers Iran had, and soon discovered that there is a serious tanker shortage. Lease prices have soared in the past few weeks. It is clear there are a lot of speculators betting that oil is going to rise to $150 or so and are willing to pay very high prices for keeping the oil on the seas waiting for higher prices. It is a speculative boom."

He then told me about flying into New York in the early '80s. Outside the harbor were 30 or so tankers just sitting, waiting for prices to continue to increase as they had been doing for some time. When they did not, they all tried to get into the harbor at the same time, and of course they couldn't. It was the top of the market. Prices dropped, and the owners of the oil had to go to the futures market to hedge what they could. I had heard that story, but George saw it with his own eyes.

Almost everyone (except the stock market) is convinced oil is going higher in the near term. As I noted above, this week's rally was partially due to short covering by large institutions and companies which had sold production far into the future at much lower prices. They finally threw in the towel and took off their hedges.

Is it 1980 All Over Again?

We may be getting ready to stage a very interesting economic experiment. Is Masters right that prices are driven by speculation, or is it supply and demand? Follow me on this one. I am not saying that this will happen, but it is an interesting scenario.

Many developing countries subsidize the price of oil to their citizens, so they do not feel the pain of higher oil prices. But the headline of today's Financial Times is that Asia is finally getting ready to cut their subsidies as oil rises to $135. The awareness that they need to allow market conditions to prevail is finally being acknowledged, as they cannot afford the subsidies. This is going to help drive down demand for oil over time.

As demand starts to fall, let's remember that the storage facilities for oil waiting to be refined are a finite item. If all those tankers end up needing to find a home at the same time, even as demand for oil is going down, you could see the price of oil go down rather quickly in the short term.

If you are leasing tankers to deliver oil that is already hedged in price, you want to get it to port as soon as possible so that your lease payments stop as soon as possible. You only hold it on the high seas if you think the price is going up by more than your carrying costs (the cost of money and leasing the tanker). If you start to lose money, you sell your oil on the futures market and get it to port as fast as you can.

Now, here is where it could get interesting. Oil is the biggest component of the commodity index funds. If oil drops and looks likely to go lower, then the massive buying of these funds we have seen in the past few months could dry up. As Dennis Gartman says, it takes a lot of buying to make the price of something to go up, but it only takes a lack of buying to make it go down. And if there is net selling?

If we see money start to flow out of the index funds (and ETFs) because of momentum selling, that means the funds are not only selling their oil components, but also the grain and metal and meat. If the index funds are the key component in the rise of prices, we should see the price of all commodities go down in tandem and in sympathy. If oil is the only thing going down as index funds go down, then it is a supply-related issue.

But what if index funds continue to grow? If there is an abundance of oil, it will eventually show up in the spot price, as storage will be lacking, no matter what the longer-term futures prices do. The market will soon tell us whether index funds are a major factor. I tend to think that even while index fund buying is bullish, it is not the major factor that is the driver of commodity prices. And even if it is significant in the short term, in the long term fundamentals will drive the true price.

If it is simply index speculation, it will end in tears when the fundamentals catch up.

Let me say that I believe the long-term price of oil is going much higher. I was writing about $100 oil two years ago. $150 and $200 oil is in the cards at some point in the future. If you have not read the Outside the Box from last Monday, you should. My friend David Galland points out that Mexico, which supplies 14% of US oil, is likely to be a net importer of oil by the middle of the next decade, as their internal demand increases and production decreases. Iran will be a net importer within six years for the same reasons. Russia's oil exports are down this year, as are Mexico's. Energy costs are going to rise in the next decade, and maybe much sooner.

You can click on the following link to read the Outside the Box on where oil exports are headed in our future. And Casey Research does some top-notch analysis of energy investments (not just oil) in a very reasonably priced letter, if you are inclined to invest in individual stocks.

As for today, if I was in a long-only commodity index fund, unless my time horizon was very long I would be watching it closely and have some close stops. And I might wait until I saw what the price of oil was going to do. If you have some profits, then you might want to think about taking some off the table. Just a thought.

Muj soukromy tip je narust na tech 150 dolaru. Proc? Z jednoducheho duvodu. Jenom proto, ze top porad rikaji a tak nejak to uz nikoho neprekvapi, spise to kazdy ocekava. Moje pozorovani je, ze kdyz se dlouho rozhlasuje nejaka cena, tak to tam dav i dotlaci.

Radek napsal:

článek jež jsem našel u Honzajse
[i]
Where Will Oil Prices Go?

Tak Honzajs udělal pro nengličtináře český výcuc a přidal tam něco ze slyšení před senátem:

http://www.pro-investory.cz/komodity/ropa_zemni_plyn/je_to_spekulativni_bublina/

Trh futures s ropou je jedno velké divadlo viz. dnešek.


Kde jsou ty zlaté časy

Radek napsal:

http://www.financninoviny.cz/zpravodajstvi/energetika/index_view.php?id=315611

Zapomenme na 135 USD, na tech 135 to vyskocilo ze 131 USD, jenom diky zavirani shortu nejistych spekulantu. Od 131 USD k soucasnym hodnotam je to minus 2.5%. Hmm, to neni velky pokles na to, ze vsechna media krici unisono "to je bublina"! Kolik ted bude "bumper"? 120 USD?

:-)

Crude futures reach limit gain on Nymex for first time


A přitom se nic nestalo válka není atentát na Busche také ne


12 USD UP za dva dny to jsem ještě neviděl


Dollar oslabí o 2,5% a ropa roste skoro o 10% jak logické.



Tak prý si ministr dopravy pustil hubu na špacír že pokud se mnou nebudou mluvit zaútočím na Irán.

Logika věci pokud chci na někoho zaútočit tak to přece nekřičím do světa!


A to je důvod udělat intraday 10USD UP a za dva dny 16USD UP.

Spíše bych řekl že po včerejšku byly vyklepány shorty a dneska už není žádný člověk kdo by chtěl lést do shortu na ropě




PS: Ne ne beru zpět ropa přesně kopíruje Indexy DJ atd. tohle někdo bere jako zajištění při korekci / recesi tohle nechápu.

Zlato se takhle nechová přitom by to bylo logičtější.

Ahoj Radku tak já bych si s menším obnosem na tu ropu put vsadil, je to opravdu sázka ale čekám že se ze skoro 140 na 130 vrátí to by mělo stačit. Nemáš na skladě nějaký certifikát který by jsi mi poradil? Já v březnu obchodoval warant aa0qx6, to šlo, dneska jsem ho zkoušel koupit a neprošlo mi to. Díky za případný tip. Jinak si myslím co píšeš shora, prostě si umanuli že ropa bude za 150 tak bude. Zatím díky a lovu zdar.


PS: EDIT by Radek

Ahoj Nimrode Certifikatu a warrantů je přehšel záleží kolik chceš riskovat?

PS: Commerz bank má myslím nějakou akci u BJ tučím 7-8EUR za nákup jakékoliv velikosti.


Uvidíme v Pondělí já myslím že to však otevře gapem dolů hlavy se přes víkend vyčistí a dolů to spadne už přes víkend a v Asii.


Na reuters jsou dnes dva články Ropa bude za 100USD o prázdninách a ropa bude 140 USD za chvíli. No bod B mají skoro splněn tak teď ještě bod A)

Z toho, co jsem v poslednich dvou dnech "prelouskal" ohledne ceny ropy, vyplyva, ze to ani nejsou tak "spekulanti", kteri zenou cenu nahoru, ale firmy v tech odvetvich, ktere jsou sensitivni na cenu ropy (zajistovani). Net long exposure spekulantu na rope je 53% - to neni tak moc.

Jinými slovy je to podobné jako s českou korunou. Koruna posiluje tak všeobecná rada zní zajišťovat se takže se všichni zajišťují tzn. koruna roste ještě více. Až se všichni zajistí tak z čista jasna koruna ztratí 4-5% zisků



Ono zajišťování je skvělá věc ale má to vždy dvě strany.



I když jak se dívám na COT:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/cotcharts/CL

Tak banky Non commercial mají zhruba o 2/3 více pozic než byly při fundamentálním trhu před více než rokem. Spekulanti mají pozice pořád stejný.


Tzn. opravdu trh táhnou investice ze strany bank a fondů. Ale jak jinak nazvat Long pozici penzijního fondu co kupuje ropu s prosincovou dodávkou 08 jinak naž spekulace na růst. Samozřejmě to neni nic hanebného dokud to nemá důsledky jako dnes. Banky šikovně využívají mediální masáže a faktu že růst dodávek je omezen. A tudíž ve střednědobém horizontu dokážou svými objemy způsobit razantní růst ceny. A sranda je pak že stejná banka zajišťuje průmysl proti růstu ceny ropy na které má svůj podíl

Tak máme tu další tutovku

Gazprom, Russia’s gas monopoly, on Tuesday predicted oil prices would reach $250 a barrel in 2009.

Net Imports (Thousand Barrels per Day):

06/06/08 9,391
05/30/08 9,453
06/06/07 10,198



Tohle jsou zajímavé čísla: ukazují na nízké dodávky ropy do USA. rozdíl proti loňsku je 800 000 barelů za den.

Kdyby nebyly takto nízké dodávky byly by již dnes rekordní zásoby ropy.

I přes tak nízké dodávky vytváří na začátku sezony zásoby pohoných hmot což by se normálně nestalo ale díky vysokým cenám se to děje.

Jak by situace vypadala kdyby byly dodávky na standartních číslech si asi každý umí představit.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/weekly_petroleum_status_report/current/pdf/table08.pdf

Radek napsal:

Net Imports (Thousand Barrels per Day):

06/06/08 9,391
05/30/08 9,453
06/06/07 10,198



Tohle jsou zajímavé čísla: ukazují na nízké dodávky ropy do USA. rozdíl proti loňsku je 800 000 barelů za den.

Kdyby nebyly takto nízké dodávky byly by již dnes rekordní zásoby ropy.

I přes tak nízké dodávky vytváří na začátku sezony zásoby pohoných hmot což by se normálně nestalo ale díky vysokým cenám se to děje.

Jak by situace vypadala kdyby byly dodávky na standartních číslech si asi každý umí představit.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/weekly_petroleum_status_report/current/pdf/table08.pdf

Snad nestojis pred lokomtivou?

ne jen by mě zajímalo kdo tu lže jestli OPEC nebo IEA.

Kde mizí těch 800 000 baralů/den když OPEC tvrdí že těží více než před rokem?

Technicky by ropa měla klesat už i na týdením průběhu a to je co říci.

Pokud však opravdu opec netěží víc než je poptávka tak má svět velký problém ale to se mě nechce moc věřit.

Jen Nigerii to jistě není a pokud ano tak se to ukáže v následujících týdnech.

Radek napsal:

ne jen by mě zajímalo kdo tu lže jestli OPEC nebo IEA.

Kde mizí těch 800 000 baralů/den když OPEC tvrdí že těží více než před rokem?

Takže méně těží nečlenské státy OPEC, vždyť těžba v Severním moři klesá již několik let, Mexiko taky bojuje samo se sebou, Rusko také žádná sláva...

Ahoj
No já nevím pokud se dá věřit např. tomuto dokumentu od EIA tak to není s nedostatkem dodávek tak úplně pravda:

Spíše je problém na straně spotřeby:


Je paradoxem že státy OECD jsou čím dál méně závislé na energii z ropy je to v rozvinutém světě přesně naopak.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ipsr/t21.xls

Tohle bude zítra trhem asi docela mávat:

Saudi Arabia's al-Naimi to Address Oil Output Increase, AP Says

By Nesa Subrahmaniyan

June 15 (Bloomberg) -- Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al- Naimi will say today whether the kingdom, the world's biggest crude oil producer, will increase output by about 500,000 barrels a day, the Associated Press reported, citing his adviser Ibrahim al-Muhanna.

The increase would take Saudi Arabia's production to 10 million barrels a day, the highest ever, the New York Times reported, citing analysts and traders it didn't identify.

Saudi Arabia has invited financial institutions, oil producers and consumer nations including the U.S., U.K., China, Germany, India and Japan to a June 22 meeting in the Red Sea coastal city of Jeddah to discuss ways to stabilize the oil market.

Crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose to a record $139.12 a barrel on June 6.

Radek napsal:

Tohle bude zítra trhem asi docela mávat:

Saudi Arabia's al-Naimi to Address Oil Output Increase, AP Says

By Nesa Subrahmaniyan

June 15 (Bloomberg) -- Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al- Naimi will say today whether the kingdom, the world's biggest crude oil producer, will increase output by about 500,000 barrels a day, the Associated Press reported, citing his adviser Ibrahim al-Muhanna.

The increase would take Saudi Arabia's production to 10 million barrels a day, the highest ever, the New York Times reported, citing analysts and traders it didn't identify.

Saudi Arabia has invited financial institutions, oil producers and consumer nations including the U.S., U.K., China, Germany, India and Japan to a June 22 meeting in the Red Sea coastal city of Jeddah to discuss ways to stabilize the oil market.

Crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose to a record $139.12 a barrel on June 6.

Nazdar Radku, Velkamedvedice, Pablo a ostatní, kluci jdete v pátek do BN1XSB ? Případně kdyby jste se na to mrkli jaký je váš názor, já bych to zkusil Díky a lovu zdar.

Nimrod napsal:

Nazdar Radku, Velkamedvedice, Pablo a ostatní, kluci jdete v pátek do BN1XSB ? Případně kdyby jste se na to mrkli jaký je váš názor, já bych to zkusil Díky a lovu zdar.[/quote]


Ahoj Nimrode nějak nemůžu najit co to je: BN1XSB

Radek napsal:

Nimrod napsal:

Nazdar Radku, Velkamedvedice, Pablo a ostatní, kluci jdete v pátek do BN1XSB ? Případně kdyby jste se na to mrkli jaký je váš názor, já bych to zkusil Díky a lovu zdar.

Ahoj Nimrode nějak nemůžu najit co to je: BN1XSB[/quote] Promiň Radku, je uveden v i.certif. a bude uveden v pátek, má to být měnově zajištěný cert. na ropu s plnou kapitálovou garancí. Takže podle mého kdyby se cena ropy držela takhle vysoko delší dobu, byla by to dobrá pojistka v téhle době.

http://icertifikaty.eu/novinky/garantovany-certifikat-na-ropu.html

Hmmm, zajisteni je ale platne pouze pro ty, kteri vudou tento certifikat drzet po cele obdobi - tj. 5 let.

Zdanlive chraneny certifikat z trochu jineho pohledu: misto investice do tohoto certifikatu muze kdokoliv ulozit penize na bezrizikovy Emax ucet u MBank, ktery pouzivam namatkove. Nemam u sebe kalkulacku, takze mne nekdo opravte, budu-li se hodne mylit, ale pri slozenem uroku rekneme na castku 1000 CZK, r=3.5%, t=5 let, mi tohle "zajisteni" vymaze cca 20% FV a pres 20% zisku na urocich. Docela velky "opportunity cost". K tomu je nutno dale pripocitat velmi pravdepodobne dalsi posilovani CZK, az se budeme blizit k EURu. Kolik? Tezko hadat, ted je koruna nadhodnocena, strednedobe klesne, ale dlouhodoby smer je jasny UP! Budme konzervativni - rekneme jeste o takovych 10% posili vuci EURu. Takze budto tento certifikat zajistit z pohledu EUR/CZK nebo riskovat ztratu z posileni nasi meny. Bez ochrany - s predpokladem, ze mena posili o 10% by pak mel drzitel tohoto certifikatu po 5-ti letech zpet pouze 900 CZK. Oproti tomu stradatel v Mbank pres 1200 CZK, rozdil 300 CZK = pripadna opravdova ztrata investora do tohoto certifikatu. Vezmu-li atraktivni risk/reward jako 1:2.5 (i kdyz by to melo byt spise 1:3), tak by tento certifikat musel mit sanci vydelat alespon 800 CZK v prubehu onech 5-ti let. Hmm, to je dohromady 1800 CZK, takze ropa by musela behem dalsich pristich 5-ti let posilit nejmene o 100%, alespon takovy by musel byt muj predpoklad, aby se mi pripadne ztraty spojene s tou radoby zajistenosti zdaly byt umerne pripadnemu zisku. Tohle je pouze teoreticke cviceni. Docela se smeju, kdyz to ted ctu po sobe. Ale myslim, ze celkem hezky demonstruje tu zdanlivost toho zajisteni. To uz mi pripadaji lepsi vetsi rizika s kratsim horizontem - jakymi jsou bonus certifikaty. Akorat nevim ktere. Zde by spise poradil mne VM nebo Pablo