AMD (ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES)

ISIN: US0079031078

Financials
AMD Executive VP and CFO Bob Rivet then came on stage to talk about AMD's financial plans. He also uttered the "glass half full" mantra and stated, "We have a lot of opportunities staring us in the face."
Those opportunities were neatly listed on one of the presentation slides, as was Grose's guidance for 2008 unit growth. Grose expects growth of 15% or more in microprocessor units, growth of more than 6% in graphics units, and growth of more than 10.5% overall in the consumer electronics space—numbers that should all equal or surpass the expected industry growth rate.

On to more nitty-gritty financial details, Grose said AMD is aiming for higher margins, lower research and development costs, lower marketing, general, and administrative costs, and a return to profitability in the third quarter. He also suggested the company would break even in Q2. In the meantime, AMD has something in the neighborhood of $2 billion in its piggy bank and an additional $600 million worth of assets it can monetize "at the appropriate time."

Conclusion
So where does that leave AMD in 2008? Based on what we heard today, we can expect disappointing financial results for the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of 2008. However, AMD is right about one thing: it has a fair amount of momentum, and if it manages to execute as planned, 2008 may very well turn out to be a good year.

On the microprocessor front, AMD should have 45nm tri- and quad-core chips ready in time to meet Intel's 45nm Nehalem processors. Even if it doesn't manage to keep up with Nehalem, AMD's plethora of platforms should help keep large PC vendors interested. AMD looks set to regain much-needed market share in the mobile graphics market, although how well the AMD graphics division will do on the desktop remains to be seen. The Radeon HD 3870 and Radeon HD 3850 are certainly encouraging efforts, though.

While it's probably still a little early to make any forecasts pertaining to 2009 and beyond, AMD's outlook and confidence suggest the company still has at least a few more rounds to go—even with naysayers predicting its imminent demise.TR








Vidím to tak nechat vyklesat do výsledků 1Q08 a pak se uvidí.

Radek: Diky, o AMD se zajimam, nedavno jsem si delal nejake propocty a vychazi mne ze i kdyby se hodne snazili a vsechno slo dobre, tak za Q4 jeste profitabilni nebudou.

Máte oba nějakou hranici, na které se AMD stane atraktivní pro nákup z fundamentálního hlediska?
Včera dal analytik Banc of America downgrade na celý semiconductors sektor a poslal AMD na hranici 7mi dolarů. Další (a silnější) support leží na 6ti dolarech (prostřední čára). Současný pokles se docela dost vzdálil od trendové čáry a dá se očekávat korekce zpět na trendovou čáru. Zatím nevidím na denním grafu nic co by naznačovalo obrat, ale ten support 6 USD a volatilita 80 procent mě láká k vypsání opcí.

Co znamena FCF = neutral? Pokud to znamena nulu, tak do toho bych urcite nesel. Ne, ne, ne.

O obratu se nedá ještě hovořit prý to má spadnout až na 4-5 USD. Takže sledovat a čekat


Ale již dnes pokud do toho zahrneme silu dolaru je tato akcie dost dole.



Ale jak jsem řekl Intell a NVIDIA je jediná konkurence pro AMD a pokud nezkrachuje tak jsou jen dva lidři na trhu high-tech CPU/GPU.

Intell - AMD
NVIDIA - AMD

Tak jsem si cvičně vypsal JUL 5 put opci a když recese dá, stanu se za 4,05 akcionářem. Když nedá, zůstane mi 95 dolarů.

Pro AMD watchers - Radka a skoro akcionare Myka :-)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/big-losses-projected-struggling-amd/story.aspx?guid=%7B37EFCA55%2DFF8F%2D43B6%2DAD1C%2D73FDAB0B0DC0%7D

Tak zdá se, že propad AMD se zastavil. Intel -11% a AMD reaguje +8%.
Možná je to předčasné, ale skoro mě mrzí, že akcionářem nebudu

AMD ma dneska po close vysledky, tak se asi spekuluje na dobre vysledky...

lemming napsal:

AMD ma dneska po close vysledky, tak se asi spekuluje na dobre vysledky...

Lepsi nez se cekalo, ale zacinaji mit problemy s cash. Pro rok 2008 se pry neda pocitat s nejakym vyznamnym prilivem cash, takze je zde porad riziko seskrtani investic nebo i snizeni vyroby.

http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2008/01/18/amd-shares-jump-on-lower-than-expected-losses-but-many-skeptics-remain-are-they-running-out-of-cash/?mod=yahoobarrons

Odkoupil jsem zpět opci na AMD za 62 z důvodu blokovaného marginu a dlouhého času do expirace. Ještě snad bude příležitost nakoupit.